Swedish right-wing populism is here to stay

This is one of the four winning student columns from the Clingendael Spectator student column competition for the summer of 2024, written by Peter Sznewajs.1  

Long boasting its reputation as a multicultural society, Sweden is now re-examining its openness to migrants and refugees. The country grapples with high unemployment among migrants, a rise in violent crime among youngsters, and a population increasingly concerned that their contribution to the vast Nordic welfare state is ending up in the hands of the wrong people.

As Sweden struggles with these harsh realities, a growing far-right, anti-immigration populist movement spearheaded by the Sweden Democrats (SD) is unfolding, fighting for ‘Swedish values’ at the expense of migrants. Within this past decade, the far-right agenda went from rejected to mainstream due to the failures of the Social Democrats and the Moderate Party. Now, it is too late: the Sweden Democrats are here to stay in Parliament, beginning a new tradition of right-wing politics in the Scandinavian state.

Increasingly, Swedes are drawn to the Sweden Democrat’s hard line, tell-it-like-it-is approach

In a liberal society like Sweden, the state's role is to maximise individual liberties, assuming citizens follow their social contract.2 When this social contract is neglected, hostilities can arise due to a strong sense of nationalistic principles, which are perceived to be undermined when new groups of people are introduced to the state.3 This is the current situation in Sweden.

Since 2010, Sweden has taken in 95,000 to 165,000 immigrants per year, many from Middle Eastern states, namely Syria and Iraq.4 During this period, gun deaths and narcotic offenses have risen, with data indicating that 30 per cent of these crimes are committed by people aged fifteen to twenty.5 Furthermore, many of these migrants are unskilled and receive benefits without participating in the labour market. Only 59 per cent of refugees in Sweden are employed, compared to 83 per cent of native-born Swedes.6

As crime, economic issues, and uncertainties about the welfare state worsen in Sweden, immigration of unskilled workers and refugees remains high. SD has capitalised on Swedes’ concerns, fearmongering in the country through nationalist, populist rhetoric which is at the core of their party.

Founded in 1986 by Gustaf Ekström, a Nazi and former SS soldier, Ekström merged the Progress Party with the far-right Keep Sweden Swedish group.7 Today, the party uses social media to undermine political opponents and ignites fear to propagandise the Swedish people – a strategy that has proven effective. Increasingly, Swedes are drawn to SD’s hard line, tell-it-like-it-is approach, and political opponents in the Swedish Parliament are beginning to recognise their legitimacy.

The tide will continue to turn right until long-term issues like immigration, welfare, and crime are effectively addressed

The party increased its vote share from under 6 per cent in 2010 to over 20 per cent in the 2022 election, drawing voters from the Social Democratic and the Moderate Party across socioeconomic backgrounds, while maintaining greater voter mobility than their two rival parties. Those shifting their support to SD believe that other parties have failed to uphold Swedish values and are allowing immigrants to take advantage of the welfare state, to the detriment of native Swedes.

Sweden’s left-wing has failed to address concerns about immigration. Culminated together with rising crime rates, criticism of the welfare state, and high unemployment, Swedes are looking to change the status quo. With the rise of the Sweden Democrats, the Moderates and Social Democrats have increasingly supported stricter immigration policies to cope with the effects of rising crime and gang violence, but these measures will prove to be too little too late.

As Sweden slowly realises its wrongdoings on immigration, more voters are shifting to the far-right, normalising extremist policies, undermining the status-quo of progressive liberal values, and turning the Scandinavian state towards right-wing populism that threatens the values of the Western world. Sweden’s political landscape is entering a new era of right-wing extremism that threatens the country’s multicultural state. The tide will continue to turn right until long-term issues like immigration, welfare, and crime are effectively addressed.

• 1Many thanks to Clingendael Spectator intern Huub van Gisbergen for taking on and successfully managing the student column competition for the summer of 2024 as a dedicated project.
• 2John Mearsheimer, Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities, Connecticut: Yale University Press, 2018, pg. 51.
• 3John Mearsheimer, Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities, Connecticut: Yale University Press, 2018, pg. 106-107.
• 4Einar H. Dyvik, ‘Sweden: Foreign-Born Population by Country of Birth 2021’, Statista, 29 February 2024.
• 5Viktor Sunnemark, ‘How gang violence took hold of Sweden – in five charts’, The Guardian, 30 November 2023.
• 6Statistics Sweden, ‘Sweden: Higher employment rate with longer duration of residence among refugees | European Website on Integration’, European Commission, 23 November 2021.
• 7Bulent Kenes, The Sweden Democrats: Killer of Swedish Exceptionalism, Brussels: European Center for Populism Studies, 2021, pg. 7-9.